Seasonal risk assessment tool for acute emergencies (2026)

Overview

This tool supports rapid assessment of relative public health risk related to seasonal hazards in emergency settings, where decisions must be made quickly and available data may be incomplete. It is designed to support operational preparedness, geographic prioritization, and response planning. The tool applies a composite indicator methodology structured around three pillars (exposure, vulnerability, and lack of coping capacity) to produce comparative risk scores across subnational areas.

• Exposure captures the degree to which populations are subject to seasonal hazards, defined primarily by climactic conditions drawn from meteorological data.
• Vulnerability reflects population characteristics that increase susceptibility to harm once exposed, including demographic, socioeconomic, and conflict-related factors.
• Lack of coping capacity represents limits in the ability of health systems and supporting infrastructure to effectively prevent, manage, or absorb health impacts of seasonal hazards.

The tool has two components. First, an Excel workbook supports data entry, documentation of indicator definitions and data sources, and configuration of pillar and indicator weights. Second, an optional web application allows users to upload a completed workbook, visualize risk scores on a subnational map, and examine the extent to which subnational rankings are sensitive to changes in pillar and indicator weights. The application’s source code is published on GitHub. 

To get started, download the workbook and follow the step-by-step instructions. A worked example is available as a reference when filling in the workbook. 

The methodology was developed by the WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence with the WHO Country Office in Ukraine and has been applied in Ukraine ahead of each winter season since 2022/2023 and each summer season since 2025.